Up Along First | A New York Mets blog » Analysis from a teenage Mets fan

March 17, 2013

March 17, 2013

The Mets made arguably their biggest addition of the offseason in late January, when they finally filled in the slot once filled by R.A. Dickey. The man chosen to fill the spot was 31 year-old right-hander Shaun Marcum. Marcum is a seven-year MLB veteran with the Blue Jays and Brewers, and has spent the last two season in Milwaukee after being traded in December 2010 for Brett Lawrie.

Marcum has put up above average numbers throughout his career. He has a 3.76 career ERA, including his 3.60 mark since coming over to the National League. He doesn’t walk too many batters, with a 2.8 BB/9 rate over his career and a 2.4 rate since 2010. He has had success, even without great stuff. His fastball is quite slow fo a conventional pitcher, sitting in the mid-80s. He has had to utilize his secondary pitches his entire career to get hitters out, and has done so with much sucess, his primary weapons being his changeup and slider.

There are injury concerns with Marcum, which is why likely the sole reason why he wasn’t offered a multi-year contract this offseason. He has battled injuries throughout his career. In 2007 and 2008 as a full-time starter with Toronto, he missed some time, throwing 159 innings in 2007 and 151 in 2008. Marcum went down with a late-season elbow injury in 2008 that finished his season, and forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery. He was able to make a few minor league starts in 2009, but didn’t make it back to the majors until 2010.

2010 and 2011 saw better health for the right-hander. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Marcum pitched 195.1 innings in 2010 and rose over the 200-inning plateau for the first time in his career in 2011. LAst year, however, he missed significant time due to elbow and shoulder problems, and was only able to toss 124 innings. He was out from mid-May to late-August with issues, and wasn’t quite himself when he got back. After coming back from the DL, Marcum posted a 4.32 ERA the rest of the season, with slightly worse strikeout and walk rates. This made the signing of Marcum risky for the Mets. Luckily, they only guaranteed him $4 million, with $4 million in incentives. If healthy, he could be much more valuable than that.

Spring training has been promising for Marcum up to this point. He’s been throwing strikes and in his last two starts, has been impressive. He took some time away from game action to strengthen his shoulder, with the team claiming he wasn’t injured. Based on what we saw this weekend, it can be safe to assume that they were telling the truth, and that the hiatus was more of a preventative measure than anything else. He is staying healthy so far with no news of pain in his arm of elbow. That has me relatively optimistic for Marcum’s performance this season. If healthy, he is an above-average third starter who will be valuable piece in the Mets rotation.

2013 Projection:

3.80 ERA, 175 IP, 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.1 WAR

Tags: 2013 projections, Shaun Marcum

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Mets Re-Assign Zack Wheeler, Nine Others, To Minor League Camp

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Mets Minor Leagues, News

March 10, 2013

March 10, 2013

Top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler was among the casualties in the first round of major league cuts in Mets camp this morning. Wheeler and nine others were re-assigned to minor league camp.

Wheeler, 22, has made only one appearance so far this spring on February 23, when he struck out two in two innings. He has missed significant time this spring with a strained oblique, which he suffered taking batting practice before his second scheduled start about two weeks ago. He threw a 35-pitch bullpen session on Thursday and is scheduled to pitch a simulated game today,

Wheeler went 10-6 with a 3.26 ERA in 19 starts for Double-A Binghamton last season before moving up to Triple-A Buffalo late in the season. He made six starts and went 2-2 with a 3.27 ERA in 33 innings pitched. Between both teams, he struck out 148 batters in 149 innings while walking 59. Wheeler was a long shot for the pitching rotation with Johan Santana‘s Opening Day status in jeopardy. He is expected to make his big league debut in May or June if healthy.

Collin McHugh, Hansel Robles, Cesar Puello, Juan Lagares, Darin Gorski, Reese Havens, Wilfredo Tovar, Elvin Ramirez, and Gonzalez Germen were also re-assigned to minor league camp. 20 more players will be cut before Opening Day on April 1.

Tags: 2013 Spring Training, 2013 Spring Training Competitions, Cesar Puello, Collin McHugh, Darin Gorski, Elvin Ramirez, Gonzalez Germen, Hansel Robles, Juan Lagares, Reese Havens, Wilfredo Tovar

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Will The Mets Be Able To Lock Up Matt Harvey Early?

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March 9, 2013

March 9, 2013

When news broke this week of Chris Sale’s new five-year extension with the White So x, my thoughts immediately turned to Matt Harvey and the Mets front office. Sale, a 23 year-old left-hander, went 17-8 with a 3.05 ERA while striking out 192 batters in 192 innings. A reliever-turned starter, Sale was a highly-touted prospect and pitched well out of the bullpen before being converted. He’s young, and he’s dominant.

The Rays signed young righty Matt Moore to a similar team-friendly deal before he had significant major league experience. The Mets themselves signed Jon Niese to a very team-friendly extension last April. It seems to be becoming a trend in baseball as teams look to save money. This raises some very interesting questions with the Mets, who have Zack Wheeler coming up later this season and Matt Harvey already in the big leagues. Few teams would take a multi-million dollar risk on someone who hasn’t even reached the big leagues yet like Wheeler, but Harvey on the other hand, could be a candidate for one of these contracts.

Obviously, the Mets would absolutely love to sign Harvey to a team-friendly extension. The only problem, of course, is that it would require his consent. That’s the problem with these types of deals in general. The player and agent might feel he could get more through the arbitration process, and would be willing to play it out. Other times, the player is so dedicated to winning, that he will sign for a few million less for the good of the organization. So far, Harvey has shown the personality of one of those players, whose sole focus is winning baseball games.There may be one problem that stands between the two sides making a deal: his agent.

Scott Boras will likely tell Harvey to not take any deal and wait it out, having confidence that he will have success in the future. Harvey could become Super Two eligible, giving him arbitration and free agency a year earlier. That might be enough to convince Harvey, in which case the team will have to pay him a lot more money down the road.

This whole scenario could play out sometime this season. With each passing month (assuming he is pitching well,) Harvey will become more expensive. The front office will have to make sure they have the “real deal” before making an offer, but they also shouldn’t wait more than a year to take action, or he will become very expensive.

Tags: Matt Harvey, Scott Boras

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2013 Mets Projections: Dillon Gee

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March 7, 2013

March 7, 2013

Mets starter Dillon Gee took a significant step forward last season, improving in a few key areas. Gee lowered his ERA from 4.43 in 2011 to 4.10 last season. He took some big steps forward and has me optimistic for this upcoming season.

The biggest sign of Gee’s improvement last season came from his so-called “peripherals”– walks and strikeouts. He saw a substantial drop in walks, going from 4.0 BB/9 to 2.4, and an increase in strikeouts, going from 6.4 K/9 to 8.0. That is likely the result of Gee mixing his pitches more effectively. He brought the use of his slider up from just 2 percent in 2011 to 13 percent last season while mixing in his curve ball a bit more as well. Gee also became less predictable with two strikes, using his changeup in that situation much less than he did in 2011. For that, there’s reason for optimism.

The only problem I can foresee with Gee this season is arm strength. He was healthy through 17 starts, until doctors found a blood clot in his throwing shoulder, which kept him on the sidelines for the remaining three months of the season. He was able to toss 109.2 innings. An increase to a full-season workload may be tough for Gee, but luckily the issue isn’t something that is going to linger. In other words, it isn’t going to flare up again like Shaun Marcum‘s elbow issue could. I’m not going to predict injuries because that’s not what this projection series is about, but durability issues are something the Mets will have to keep an eye out for.

Looking back at 2012, Gee’s statistics, much like Jonathon Niese‘s, are inflated by two awful starts. He gave up seven runs to the Giants in April and seven to the Brewers in early May. Take those two starts out and Gee’s ERA is 3.31. However I think it will be difficult for Gee to rid himself of games like those, considering what type of pitcher he is. He doesn’t have the stuff of a Matt Harvey or R.A. Dickey, so he is just going to get lit up sometimes.

For that same reason, I have to be very conservative when projecting Gee. With his stuff (which isn’t bad, but it’s certainly not at the level of the rest of the staff) he can only progress so far. He won’t be at the level of a Jon Niese, but he will provide the Mets with above-average production from the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. He won’t be flashy because he never has been, but many teams would kill to have a fifth starter as consistent and productive as Dillon Gee was last year, and will be this season.

2013 Projection:

3.95 ERA, 180 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.7 WAR

Tags: 2013 projections, Dillon Gee

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Is Collin Cowgill The Solution At The Leadoff Spot?

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March 4, 2013

March 4, 2013

We are only just a few games into the 2013 exhibition season, but things are looking up for some of the new Mets outfielders, especially right-handed hitting Collin Cowgill. Through nine spring games, Cowgill is tied with Jordany Valdespin for the team lead in hits, with eight. So far (keep in mind we are still a month away from Opening Day) he looks like he will, at minimum, be a part of one of the platoons in the outfield. But is he something more? Is he the solution to the problems at the leadoff spot?

It has been a while since the Mets have had a true leadoff hitter. Well, it seems like a while. Since the departure of Jose Reyes in December of 2011, the Mets haven’t been able to find someone to fill in the void. Last year, Ruben Tejada got a shot at it. While he batted .293 in that slot, his .334 on-base percentage left a lot to be desired. Last year’s version of Tejada doesn’t look like a typical leadoff hitter. He was hitting a lot more line drives last year but unless he can put that together with his above-average walk rate from 2011, he isn’t going to help the Mets from that part of the lineup.

The other name that has been tossed around is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Nieuwenhuis has hit in the leadoff spot a few times this spring. Throughout his minor league career, he typically posted an above-average walk rate but his strikeout rate has become a huge problem and at one point last year, he looked on the verge of collapse. He hasn’t hit enough to really earn the leadoff spot. So far this spring, with seven strikeouts in 18 at-bats, Nieuwenhuis has done nothing to prove otherwise. And depending on the severity of the knee injury he suffered yesterday, he may not be playing at all on Opening Day anyway.

Right now, the competition for the top spot in the lineup is wide open, and it looks like Cowgill is now a frontrunner. He has already won over the hearts of Mets fans with his hard-nosed, aggressive style of play early on in camp. And unlike Nieuwenhuis or Tejada, he has the speed to steal some bases as well.

Cowgill hit .269 in 38 games with the Oakland A’s last season, while posting a .336 on-base percentage. That’s better than both Tejada and Nieuwenhuis, even as a bench player shuttling between the majors and minors. And while Cowgill struggled in Triple-A last year with a .250 batting average (and .307 OBP) in 63 games, he has historically put up much better numbers than that. Plus, those 293 plate appearances in which he struggled are only a blip compared to the rest of his career.

In 2011 playing for the Triple-A affiliate for the D-Backs, Cowgill hit .354 with a .430 on-base percentage and 11.2% walk rate, while also knocking 13 home runs, eight triples, and swiping 30 bases. Even if you factor in the hitter-friendly parks of the Pacific Coast League, his numbers are still outstanding.

Despite Cowgill’s struggles in his 216 major league plate appearances, his resume in the minors is too much to overlook. He has been a machine his entire career when it comes to getting on base. To top it off, he can add a much-needed stolen base threat to the top of the order, something that the Mets lacked last season.

Obviously Cowgill isn’t Michael Bourn, or any of the other big-name outfielders that signed with other teams this winter, but the Mets very well could catch lightening in a bottle with him.

Tags: 2013 Spring Training, 2013 Spring Training Competitions, Collin Cowgill, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Ruben Tejada

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2013 Mets Projection: Jon Niese

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February 25, 2013

February 25, 2013

The Mets signed Jonathon Niese at the perfect time early last April, inking the left-hander to a five-year extension worth just over $25 million. The contract the two sides agreed to kept Niese a Met for his final pre-arbitration years (2012), all three of his arbitration years, and at least one year of free agency. The best part of the deal may be the two team options, which total $21 million and would keep Niese for two more free agent years. Niese, who has constantly been the subject of trade rumors throughout his career, finally had some security. How did he respond? With a career year.

Niese was coming off a few year in a row in which he was unable to finish a season pitching well or healthy. In 2010, he posted a 7.57 ERA over his last seven starts after pitching very well for most of the season. He was clearly showing signs of wear and tear. In 2011, he missed all of September with injury. It was very important for Niese to finally be able to pitch (and pitch well) down the stretch in 2012.

Niese’s overall numbers last season are actually a bit deceiving, and don’t quite tell the whole story. He finished the year with an above-average ERA of 3.40, 14th in the National League. However, he actually pitched much better than that mark would suggest. His ERA was inflated by two terrible starts, one in May against Toronto and another right before the All-Star break against Chicago. In those two games combined, he gave up 15 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. If you remove those starts from his statistics, his ERA is 2.84, which would have been fifth in the National League.

Since he has become a full-time starter in the big leagues, Niese has shown steady improvement, but last year was an even bigger step forward and has me excited for his future. He is mixing his pitches much better than in years past, and is also pitching remarkably better out of the stretch. With men on, opponents had a meager .272 on-base percentage with Niese striking out 3.52 batters per walk. In 2010 in those situations, hitters had a .358 on-base percentage and Niese struck out only 1.94 batters per walk. That’s a very promising trend and shows that last year was no fluke.

Overall, Niese has a very bright future ahead of him. Last year was not a fluke, but genuine improvement. He has turned himself into one of the better young lefties in the National League. With his new team-friendly contract, if he continues to pitch like he did last year, he will be immensely valuable to the Mets in the years to come.

2013 Projection:

3.50 ERA, 205 IP, 7.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.8 WAR

Tags: 2013 projections, Jon Niese