Series Preview: San Diego Padres

Yonder Alonso set a Padres rookie record with 39 doubles last season.

The Mets begin their 2013 season against the San Diego Padres, who they will face off in a three-game series at Citi Field. It’s the beginning of a rather easy April schedule for the Mets, whose April opponents posted just a .476 winning percentage last season.

The Padres are in rebuilding mode, but may be a sleeper team this season, even in the ever-more-difficult National League West. They struggled big time on offense, batting just .234 as a team in the first half. Missing Carlos Quentin for the first two months of the year, they didn’t have a big power threat in their lineup. They were 28th in ISO before the All-Star break, while also ranking 29th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+. Their pitching staff, which ranked 12th in ERA for the first half, just couldn’t produce enough to make up for the struggles on offense.

The second half was a different story for San Diego, however, as they turned it around drastically and found themselves playing above .500. Why did they start playing better? Simply put, they were scoring more runs. They went 17-35 in April in May because they were only scoring 3.2 runs per game. With Chase Headley, their only threat, ice cold in the first half, they had no offense. However in the second half, with the infusion of Carlos Quentin back into the lineup, and a historic resurgence by Headley, they scored about 4.6 runs per game. That, combined with their pitching staff holding steady allowed them to go 42-33 in the second half, compared to just 34-53 in the first.

Game 1: Jonathon Niese (190.1 IP , 3.16 K/BB, 113 ERA+ vs. Edinson Volquez (182.2 IP, 1.66 K/BB, 88 ERA+)

Volquez, 28, has had an up-and-down career to say the least. In 2008, he had a sensational year for the Reds in his first full season in the big leagues. He posted an ERA of 3.21 over 32 starts and finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting (in any other year, he would have won the award). A few injury-plagued seasons, however, and he ended up in San Diego after being dealt for Mat Latos. He had his best season since 2008, but command issues held him back. He posted a dreadful 5.2 BB/9 rate last year and walked a league-high 105 batters. In the minors, he had never posted high walk numbers, but since that 2008 season, they have been glaringly high.

Game 2: Matt Harvey (59.1 IP, 2.69 K/BB, 141 ERA+) vs. Clayton Richard 218.2 IP, 2.55 K/BB, 91 ERA+)

Richard had another solid season for the Padres last year, settling in as the steady rock of the rotation at ge 28, and going over the 200 inning mark for the second time in his career. Two things to know about Richard: he doesn’t strike out many batters and he gives up a ton of home runs. He struck out 4.4 batters per nine innings last year, even lower than his career 5.7 K/9 rate. He also gave up a league-high 31 home runs. Keep in mind that he made 14 of his 33 starts at Petco Park, one of the toughest ballparks in the majors for home run hitters.

Game 3: Dillon Gee (109.2 IP, 3.34 K/BB, 94 ERA+) vs. Eric Stults (99 IP, 2.04 K/BB, 128 ERA+)

Stultz had a very good season for the Padres after jumping into their rotation mid-season. He was claimed off the waiver wire from the White Sox in May, and proved to be a good pickup for San Diego with an impressive second half. He pitched in 18 games for San Diego and made 14 starts, in which he posted a 2.92 ERA. He is another guy who doesn’t strike out many, with a career K/9 rate of 5.0.

Series News & Notes

  • The Padres will be without Chase Headley, who is out for a few more weeks. He was the driving force of the Padres’ second half success, hitting .308/.386/.592 with 23 home runs, 11 doubles, and seven stolen bases in only 75 games. He ended up finishing fifth in the NL MVP voting after hitting just .267/.368/.413 with eight home runs in 86 first half games.
  • San Diego will also be missing starting second baseman Logan Forsythe, who is out with plantar fasciitis. He hit .273/.343/.390 with six homers, eight stolen bases, and three triples in 91 games.
  • Watch out for Luke Gregerson and Huston Street in the back end of the San Diego bullpen. Gregerson finished with a 2.39 ERA in 71.2 innings last season while Street, the primary closer, saved 23 games and had a 1.85 ERA in 39 innings.
  • Padre third base prospect Jedd Gyorko will be making his major league debut. Gyorko was ranked the 50th best prospect in baseball by MLB.com and 71th by Baseball America. He hit .311/.373/.547 with 30 home runs and 28 doubles in 126 games between San Diego’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates last season.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/04/series-preview-san-diego-padres/

2013 Minor League Preview: Savannah Sand Gnats

brandon nimmo

2013 Savannah Roster

Here is unofficial roster for the Savannah Sand Gnats based on players already there for Media Day. That’s as close to official as you can get.

Starting Pitchers

Matthew Bowman
Gabriel Ynoa
Steven Matz
Rainy Lara
Logan Taylor
Matt Koch
Luis Cessa

Relievers

Hunter Carnevale
Julian Hilario
Jake Kuebler
Bret Mitchell
Timothy Peterson
Paul Sewald

Catchers

Kevin Plawecki
Jeffrey Glenn
Nelfi Zapata

Infielders

Jayce Boyd
Chad Zurcher
Phillip Evans
Cole Frenzel
Yucarybert De La Cruz
Jeff Reynolds

Outfielders

Brandon Nimmo
Stefan Sabol
Eudy Pina
Gregory Pron

The Mets will be piggybacking pitchers again in the rotation which explains the seven starters.

2013 Savannah Preview

The 2012 Sand Gnats were a very intriguing team. There were some surprises like Travis Taijeron and Aderlin Rodriguez, as well as some great seasons from big names, such as Michael Fulmer. This year, the team could be even more exciting to watch and follow, as the 2012 draft class begins to rise through the minor league system. We’ll get to see some highly-touted draft picks in their first taste of long-season professional baseball. The other interesting group we’ll see in Savannah is the starting rotation coming up from Brooklyn. Most of the pitching staff, which had a brilliant year last year, will be heading to Savannah this summer, including Hansel Robles, Gabriel Ynoa, and others. Let’s take a look at some of the names to watch this season.

Players To Watch

  • Brandon Nimmo (OF) – While Brandon Nimmo‘s batting average from last season doesn’t look great, there were plenty of positive signs from the Mets’ 2011 first-round pick that should have fans pretty excited. At age 19, Nimmo showed unexpected power, slugging 28 extra-base hits in only 69 games, six of those home runs. He was fourth in the league in doubles and .158 ISO (SLG-BA, a good indicator of power) was sixth in the league. He was the only player under 20 years old in the top 20. Nimmo was also very patient at the plate, walking in 14.3 percent of his plate appearances, third in the NYPL. Despite having missed out on a year of high school ball due to injury and playing his first full year of professional ball in a pitcher friendly league (where many of the year’s top college pitchers go), he thrived, which is a great sign for his future.
  • Gabriel Ynoa (RHP) – Another star in the 2012 Brooklyn rotation, Ynoa had a great season last year as well, leading the team in innings pitched. He was also fifth in the league in WHIP (0.926). He put up an incredible 6.40 strikeout to walk ratio. Ynoa did all this as one of the youngest pitchers in the league. He already has a solid fastball and an advanced changeup. He could be someone who has another breakout year with Savannah.
  • Rainy Lara (RHP) – Lara, another 2012 Cyclone, put up some ridiculous numbers last year in Brooklyn, but didn’t get as much attention as Hansel Robles and others did. In 12 starts, he posted a 2.91 ERA, walked 1.6 batters per nine, but most impressively, struck out 10.2 batters per nine. Among qualified pitchers, that was second only to his teammate Luis Mateo. At 22, some may be skeptical of Lara’s performance and say it was a result of his age, but when you keep in mind that he made the jump from the Gulf Coast League to Brooklyn, his performance last year was impressive.

Other Notables

  • Kevin Plawecki (C) – The Mets grabbed Plawecki in the supplementary round out of Purdue in last year’s draft, and for good reason. Plawecki was sent to Brooklyn, where he put up big power numbers. He was fourth in the league in home runs with seven in 216 at-bats. He put up a decent walk rate of 9.9 percent, and put up a .345 On-Base Percentage. Behind Travis d’Arnaud, he is probably the best catching prospect in the system.
  • Matt Koch (RHP) – The Mets’ third round draft pick out of the University of Louisville last year pitched mostly out of the Brooklyn bullpen, but was able to make two starts. He was mostly a reliever in college, and projects as one in the future. In 23.1 innings, Koch struck out 19 (7.3 K/9) and walked seven (2.7 BB/9) while allowing 13 earned runs.
  • Jayce Boyd (1B) – The Mets picked Boyd, a right-handed hitting first baseman, out of Florida State last June. He went to Brooklyn and showed a little bit of pop, hitting five homers, nine doubles, and a triple in 54 games.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/04/2013-minor-league-preview-savannah-sand-gnats/

Some Surprises As Opening Day Roster Takes Shape

rice 2The Mets made some moves yesterday to clear out the 40-man roster in preparation for Opening Day. Here’s what happened:

  • The Mets exposed Darin Gorski and Reese Havens to the waiver wire to clear two more spots. Both cleared waivers and are headed to the minors, according to Adam Rubin.
  • In a bit of a surprising move, the Mets sent Robert Carson, Omar Quintanilla, and Landon Powell to Triple-A Las Vegas. It had been reported this week that Carson had actually won the job as the Mets’ second lefty in the bullpen, but they opted to send him down instead. Quintanilla’s demotion was also a bit of a surprise considering the health of Justin Turner, who may begin the season on the DL. Powell lost the backup catcher job to Anthony Recker, who was the favorite all spring because a roster spot didn’t have to be cleared for him to make the team.
  • The Mets selected the contracts of Scott Atchison, Marlon Byrd, LaTroy Hawkins, and in another surprise, Scott Rice from Triple-A Las Vegas. Atchison, Byrd, and Hawkins were all expected to make the team, especially after they performed this spring, but Rice was a real longshot. Rice, 31, has never pitched in a major league game and is a 14-year minor league veteran. He has pitched in the Orioles, Rangers, Padres, Rockies, and Dodgers organizations. Last season in Triple-A Albuquerque, he made 54 appearances, totaling 59.1 innings and posting a 4.40 ERA. He will be the second lefty in the bullpen behind Josh Edgin.
  • That leaves two spots open right now. According to Jorge Castillo of the Star-Ledger, those two remaining spots will go to either Zach Lutz, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Justin Turner. With Turner likely starting the season on the DL, the spots will probably go to Lutz and Nieuwenhuis.

With that, here’s what the projected Mets roster looks like for Opening Day:

Catchers (2): John Buck, Anthony Recker

Infielders (4): Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada, David Wright

Outfielders (4): Collin Cowgill, Marlon Byrd, Lucas Duda, Mike Baxter

Bench (3): Jordany Valdespin, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Zach Lutz

Starting Pitchers (4): Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee, Jeremy Hefner

Relief Pitchers (8): Bobby Parnell, Scott Atchison, Brandon Lyon, LaTroy Hawkins, Josh Edgin, Scott Rice, Greg Burke, Jeurys Familia

Notice how Shaun Marcum is not on this projection. He will start the season on the DL, but will be activated within the first week of the season, meaning one of the eight pitchers from the bullpen will be sent down. MY best guesses would be Greg Burke of Jeurys Familia. The Mets might want to give Familia more development time in the minors before they throw him in the major league bullpen.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/03/some-surprises-as-opening-day-roster-takes-shape/

Johan Santana Out For Year With Re-Torn Anterior Capsule

santana hurtWell, if there was a worst-case scenario for the Mets and Johan Santana: this is it. Sandy Alderson announced on SNY this evening that Santana has likely re-torn his anterior capsule in his left shoulder. This is the exact same injury Santana suffered a few years ago that forced him to have surgery in September 2010. The injury caused him to miss then entire 2011 season, and left him unable to handle a full workload in 2012.

This is absolutely devastating for the Mets in two ways. It really hurts the pitching rotation of course. The rotation looked decent with Santana in there, but now it appears the Mets will need to either acquire another starter, use a “filler” pitcher such as Jeremy Hefner or Collin McHugh, or thrust one of their pitching prospects into a role that are probably not ready for. Although Santana was having trouble this spring and was out indefinitely, there was at least some expectation that with the arm strength built up from the two thirds of a season he pitched last year, he would be able to contribute for at least most of the season. Now, that’s all gone.

There is another that has hurt the Mets badly in the past and will come around to bite them again this time: money. Santana is in the last year of a six-year, $137.5 million contract. He is owed $25.5 million this season in salary with a $25 million club option next year. The buyout for net year is $5.5 million, so the Mets owe Santana $31 million over the next eight months. However, this hurts the Mets even more than you might expect because thanks to insurance rates skyrocketing when Santana signed his contract, the deal is uninsured, meaning the Mets are on the hook for the full $31 million owed to him.

The sad part of all this is how far Santana has fallen. Some Mets fans might not remember this because of all of the recent injury problems he has had, but in the first few years of his contract, Santana was arguably the best pitcher in the National League. He was absolutely dominant. In 2008, you could’ve made a case that he deserved the Cy Young Award over Tim Lincecum and Brandon Webb. He was incredible. But since then, he hasn’t been the same. He has lost some zip on his pitches, and last year, was more crafty than he was dominant. He was no longer able to get by with just embarrassing hitters. He had to outsmart them. While he was good at that too, he wasn’t quite the same from his years in Minnesota and early years with the Mets. We saw a glimpse into his greatness last June when he threw the first ever no-hitter by a Met, but we soon saw that dominance dissipate, and all that was left was an injury-prone shell of what he once was.

Looking back at this spring, there were some suspicious signs that he was hiding an injury. Throwing bullpen sessions on the backfields. Not reporting to camp early, like an injured pitcher typically would. The fighting with the front office. He clearly saw this coming, but the competitor in him refused to let down. It wasn’t the best decision, of course, and it probably cost him this season, but it was what he felt he needed to do to get back on the mound. I find it hard to imagine Santana ever pitching in the majors again. He’s too broken and too fragile. It’s such a shame that such an amazing talent will always be remembered fro not being able to stay on the field.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/03/johan-santana-out-for-year-with-re-torn-anterior-capsule/

ESPN: Mets Looking To Trade Lesser Prospects To Clear Roster Spots

The Mets are in a bit of a jam right now when it comes to roster spots. Since last year, the 40-man roster has been a complete mess, with many spots taken up by prospect not close to the major leagues. This week might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The Mets are in a tight situation and with five players set to make the team that aren’t on the 40-man roster, some tough decisions will have to be made. This from Rubin:

In desperate need of clearing several spots, the Mets have put out word to other teams that they are interested in moving non-core prospects on the 40-man roster.
Among those available via trade: Gonzalez Germen, Darin Gorski, Reese Havens, Juan Lagares, Cesar PuelloElvin Ramirez and Hansel Robles.

Rubin notes that with 39 players on the 40-man roster, four spots will need to be cleared in order to fit in the full Opening Day roster. Brandon Hicks was outrighted earlier this week, taken off the roster, which eases the problem but certainly does not solve it.

The Mets would never consider leaving any of their top prospects up to waivers, but some low-level players like Reese Havens, Cesar Puello, and Juan Lagares may end up on the waiver wire. That’s very risky because Puello and Lagares, as well as some other waiver candidates have some value. The Mets may feel comfortable putting Gonzalez Germen and Reese Havens up for waivers, but maybe not as comfortable with letting go of someone with as much upside as Puello. My guess is they would cut Germen, Havens, Ramirez, and Gorski. They all have low upsides in comparison to Lagares, Puello, and the rest of the roster.

Whatever happens, the Mets only have a few days to make their decision, and find trade partners if possible, although a trade seems unlikely this time of year when every team is experiencing the same type of roster troubles.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/03/espn-mets-looking-to-trade-lesser-prospects-to-clear-roster-spots/

LaTroy Hawkins Makes Team, Pedro Feliciano Does Not

Due to a deadline in his contract, the Mets had to inform right-hander LaTroy Hawkins of whether or not he made the team today. A source told ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin that Hawkins has been told he has made the major league bullpen. He will make a $1 million base salary for making the team, plus incentives.

Hawkins, 40, tossed 42 innings last season for the Angels, posting a 3.64 ERA and 1.38 WHIP to go along with 23 strikeouts. He signed with the Mets this offseason on a minor league deal.

Hawkins signed a very similar contract to Pedro Feliciano, who also had to be told whether he has made the team by today. The answer was no. ”I’m going to think about it and see what I decide. Hopefully somebody picks me up. We’ll see what happens,” Feliciano told reporters. He now has the option to either go to Triple-A, in which case the Mets will be obligated to pay him $100,000, or he could opt out and attempt to sign with another team.

According to Adam Rubin, it wasn’t about performance for Feliciano, it was purely about arm strength:

“We’ve reached the stage where we just thought we’d like to see him build up some shoulder strength,” Collins said. “We’re not saying velocity — just back-to-back stuff. One of the things we saw was the second day we brought him back, his stuff wasn’t as crisp as the first. He’s the kind of guy that we’re going to need to do that. If he’s going to make a difference, which he has in his career, you’ve got to know you can bring him in back-to-back days and he’s still going to be sharp.

Feliciano, 36, did not pitch either of the last two seasons due to constant injury. Before that, however, he was a workhorse in the Met bullpen, pitching in 266 games from 2008 to 2010, leading the league every year. Unless he has the arm strength to take that kind of workload, or something close to it, then he isn’t very useful to the Mets.

The Mets learned a lesson the hard way last year when they carried at times, only one lefty in the bullpen. It seems unlikely that Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson will make that mistake again, so this is probably positive news for Robert Carson, who went from having only an outside shot at making the team to now almost guaranteed to make it, along with Josh Edgin.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/03/latroy-hawkins-makes-team-pedro-feliciano-does-not/

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