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April 7, 2013

April 7, 2013

Travis d’Arnaud, along with Zack Wheeler headline the Las Vegas 51s roster.

The Mets changed Triple-A affiliates this offseason, going from Buffalo to Las Vegas and from the International League to the Pacific Coast League. The biggest storyline for this team will be how the move affects development. The Pacific Coast League, especially Las Vegas, is notorious for inflated power numbers. It may be harder to judge how well a player is developing because hitters will have more home runs and pitchers will see their ERA shoot up as well. It will be interesting to see how the prospects react as well, with the top two prospects in the system set to play at least the first month with Las Vegas.

The Big Names

Zack Wheeler (RHP)- It’s only a matter of time before the top Mets prospect gets called up to the majors. Wheeler should only be with the 51s for a few months, coming up in July at the latest.
Travis d’Arnaud (C)- d’Arnaud was the centerpiece of the R.A. Dickey trade last December, and for good reason. d’Arnaud looks like the complete package, both at the plate and with the glove. His power has developed over the past two years into one of his best tools. Last year, he hit 16 homers in 67 games in Triple-A before a torn PCL ended his season.
Wilmer Flores (INF)- After struggling in the lower minors for a few years (as a result of being rushed), Flores had a resurgent season last year for Advanced-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton. The long-awaited power numbers finally came, as Flores slugged .479 with 18 home runs in 130 total minor league games. In his third year in St. Lucie, he hit .289/.336/.463 with ten home runs in 64 games, earning himself an FSL All-Star Game selection. He was then promoted to Binghamton, hwere he hit even better, batting .311/.363/.494 with eight home runs in 66 games. He is still young for the league, currently the seventh-youngest player in Triple-A and the fourth youngest in the Pacific Coast League. If Flores can keep it up, all that’s left is finding a position.
Jeurys Familia (RHP) Note: Familia was sent down on Saturday and will be with the 51s for the foreseeable future- Familia had a down season last year with the Buffalo Bisons, struggling as a starting pitcher. He made 28 starts and had a 4.73 ERA, along with a very concerning 4.8 walks per nine rate. His poor performance finally convinced the Mets that he belongs in the bullpen, which is where he will be this season for Las Vegas.
Matt den Dekker (CF)- Note: Broken wristThe former fifth-round pick den Dekker tore the cover off the ball in half a season with Binghamton, but struggled to hit .200 in the second half with the Bisons. He batted .340/.397/.563 with eight home runs in 56 Double-A games. After moving to Triple-A, he hit just .220/.256/.373 in 77 games. His stirkeout and walk rates were awful, as he struck out in 28.4% of his Plate appearances, while walking only 4.4%. Those numbers are among the worst in his minor league career. Den Dekker must cut down on the strikeouts if he will ever play regularly in the majors. His incredible defense isn’t going to carry him to success. Den Dekker has shown a trend throughout his short career of needing an adjustment period to each new level, which has some people very hopeful that he will start to hit again once he comes back from a broken wrist later this season.

The Sleepers

Juan Lagares (OF)- The speedy and versatile Lagares hit .283/.334/.389 between St. Lucie and Binghamton last season. He can play all three outfield positions, making him a possibility for the Mets bench late this season if things go right.
Andrew Brown (OF)- Brown was a longshot to make the team in spring training, and was cut before the season started. However, Brown still has a chance to make some noise with his power. He has put up consistent power numbers throughout his minor league career and could play a role on the Met bench as a power-hitting pinch hitter if someone gets hurt.

Other Names to Watch

Reese Havens (2B)- The seemingly always hurt Reese Havens was finally cut from the 40-man roster in the week leading up to Opening Day. Havens, 26, has never played a full season without injury and in his six-year career, has only played in 308 games. If he can stay healthy and the power that scouts have been talking about since he was in college finally shows up, there is still a chance he has a role with the big league club.
Collin McHugh (RHP)- McHugh profiles as a long man or back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. He had a solid season in the minors last year, posting a 2.91 ERA in 25 starts with Binghamton and Buffalo, walking 2.8 batters per nine and striking out 8.2. He struggled in a short stint with the big league club, allowing 21 runs (18 earned) in 21.1 innings over eight appearances.
Zach Lutz (3B)- Lutz has put up solid numbers for most of his minor league career, and almost made the team out of spring training. He hit .295/.404/.496 in 78 minor league games last season.

Tags: Andrew Brown, Collin McHugh, Jeurys Familia, Juan Lagares, Las Vegas 51s, Matt den Dekker, Reese Havens, Travis D'Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, Zach Lutz, Zack Wheeler

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/04/2013-minor-league-preview-las-vegas-51s/

Baseball America: Q&A With Mets Scouting Director Tommy Tanous

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April 6, 2013

April 6, 2013

Conor Glassey of Baseball America did a very interesting Q&A session with Mets Scouting Director Tommy Tanous. Tanous had some cool insights into the world of scouting, touching on how technology, statistics, amateur showcases, and more have changed the world of scouting. Here is just a little bit of what he said:

Scouting is based on opinions, and it’s always said that you can’t properly evaluate the success of a draft until about five years down the road. So, how do you go about evaluating yourself as a scout, and evaluating the job that your staff is doing?

Nobody knows who has the best draft, until these players actually start playing and start getting deeper into their career. I judge our draft, and our staff, and my own performance by, did we follow our process? There are a lot of different ways of skinning a cat. There are some teams that are stuff-oriented with a pitcher, they want guys with great stuff. There are others who obviously want great stuff, but they’re more concerned about arm action. They’re both right in a way, but what is your process, what is your philosophy, and did you, as a staff, stick to it? I think that’s how you judge yourself as a staff. Because, if your process is solid, and your philosophy is solid—and there can be many different philosophies—but if you stick to them, I think you have the best chance of having success. I think you can get in trouble if you have one philosophy one year, a totally different philosophy another year, and you’re constantly changing. If you have a philosophy you believe in, certainly you’re going to make some small adjustments as the year goes by, but if you have your beliefs and you stick to them, and your staff believes in them, I think that’s the way you have your best drafts.

————————————–

Scouting is obviously a subjective business. But it’s important to remain objective, too. I did a feature a couple years ago called “Scouts On Scouting,” where I interviewed scouts about their jobs, and one thing a guy told me that really stuck out to me, that I really thought was neat, is a thing he does when he does pro coverage. The first day he gets there for BP, he takes all his notes without getting a roster, so that he’s not influenced by the names or the statistics. Are there any tricks like that, that you use yourself, or little things you try to teach new scouts?

Well, they call that scouting with your eyes. It’s nice when you do that, and then at the end of your series, or in the middle of your series, you pick up the stats and the guys you circled, that you feel are prospects, are all having good years. Then it makes you feel better as an evaluator. The main thing I’ll try and stress upon all our scouts—our crosscheckers and our area supervisors—is this: You evaluate with a checklist, whatever that checklist may be. Whatever you feel is important—and obviously I’m not going to go into the New York Mets’ checklist—but we have certain things we like in a pitcher, and certain things we like in a hitter. When you evaluate a player in February, you go down that checklist. He does this, this, this, this, this that we like; he doesn’t do this so well. Well, February turns into April, and we want that same checklist. We want that player being graded on the same criteria he was graded two months earlier on. Otherwise, I’ve seen too many scouts, they’ll go in in February, and they’ll have a certain criteria of what they like. By May, that criteria has changed, and really it’s like having two different scouts at the game. You’re not being consistent, and you’re not being true to the list, or to the player. That’s probably the best advice I can give a young scout. Keep changing, keep getting better—look, my criteria for what I look for now, in 2013, is much different than it was in 1996, because I’ve matured and have more experience, and now I’ve seen certain things that make me feel more comfortable with a hitter. But, I try and have the same process when I go to the game everyday. Therefore, I’m giving it more of a consistent opinion.

I think it will be interesting to see how the scouting world adjusts to advanced technology, which has been taking over the game over the last decade. Pitch f/x and other tools now make every pitch’s release point, movement, location, and velocity are available to the public. Here’s what Tanous had to say about it:

I know some teams are using those, and you see them certainly at the Area Codes and the other events, too. Seeing how hard the ball comes off the bat, velocity, spin rates, I think it’s just starting now with these companies, and I think it’s going to take a few years—like anything new—I think it’ll take a few years before teams have total confidence in it. Just like the video camera took a few years, but I think it’ll eventually get there, and there’ll be a system that’s probably used more than others, and a system that teams probably feel more comfortable with.

Tanous has been with the organization since June 2011 and in his current role since November 2011. He was previously the Director of International Scouting for the Diamondbacks in 2009 and 2010. Before that, he worked in the Rangers, Angels, and Brewers organizations as a scout.

Read the rest of the interview here.

Tags: Mets scouting, Tommy Tanous

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/04/baseball-america-qa-with-mets-scouting-director-tommy-tanous/

Wally Backman Says Zack Wheeler Is Close To MLB-Ready

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April 6, 2013

by Joe DeCaro

April 6, 2013

zack wheeler

According to Mark Hale of the New York Post, Triple-A manager Wally Backman believes Zack Wheeler is not far away from being promoted to the Mets despite his rough outing on Thursday, and drew comparisons to Matt Harvey.

“He is the same spot Matt Harvey was at last year, I would say,” Backman said of Wheeler in a phone interview with The Post Friday. “It’s a matter of command. I think it’s going to be a matter of consistency.”

“He struggled with command a little bit Thursday night. It was the first game. He was rushing a little bit. He showed signs of just dominating, and then he’d get a little bit erratic.”

Wheeler had big command issues walking three of the first six batters he faced. He was unable to complete the fourth inning after tossing 86 pitches in 3.1 innings.

Last season, Wheeler went 2-2 with a 3.27 ERA in six Triple-A starts, striking out 31 and walking 16 in 33 innings.

Tags: Las Vegas 51s, Wally ackman, Zack Wheeler

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Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/04/wally-backman-says-zack-wheeler-is-close-to-mlb-ready/

2013 Minor League Preview: Binghamton Mets

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April 6, 2013

April 6, 2013

Rafael Montero headlines the B-Mets 2013 roster.

While, for most of the season, it will be the St. Lucie Mets grabbing the headlines, the Binghamton Mets have an intriguing roster as well. Bingo will feature a solid pitching staff, headlined by Rafael Montero, as well as some prospects that have largely flown under the radar in their careers, but have talent, such as Wilfredo Tovar and Alonzo Harris. The B-Mets will also feature two interesting names who haven’t been able to put it all together yet: Cory Vaughn and Cesar Puello, both of whom have very high ceilings. Now, let’s get to the players.

The Big Names

Rafael Montero (RHP)- Montero has risen through the minors unusually quickly, playing for seven of the Mets’ minor league affiliates after signing with them before the 2011 season. Although he had a fine 2011 season between the Dominican Summer, Gulf Coast, Appalachian, and New York-Penn leagues, he didn’t really put himself on the map until last season. Last season between Savannah and St. Lucie, he posted a 2.36 ERA in 122 innings, striking out 8.1 per nine while walking just 1.4. Scouts credit his strong secondary pitches for his successes so far in his career. His changeup and slider are both well-developed, which is why he has dominated and moved up so quickly.
Wilfredo Tovar (SS)- Until last season, Tovar looked like a weak-hitting shortstop with a good glove, but also a bat that would keep him from the majors. In 2011, Tovar hit .251/.318/.318 in a full season with Savannah. He was moved up a level to St. Lucie last season, in which he started to look like more than a weak-hitting shortstop. In half a season with St. Lucie, he upped his batting line to .284/.377/.385 with 12 stolen bases in 65 games, earning himself an FSL All-Star Game selection. What was especially promising was his strikeout and walk rates, which were better than ever. He walked in 11.3% of his plate appearances, compared to his career-best of 8.0%, and struck out at a 6.6% clip, also the best mark of his career. He struggled in Binghamton last year, which is why he is repeating the league, but if he can harness the patience that we saw out of him over the first half of 2012, he could become a Ruben Tejada-type player.
Cory Vaughn (RF)- The Mets don’t have many pure power hitters in their system, but Cory Vaughn is one of them, and among the best. He is the definition of a power hitter: getting on base, and hitting a ton of extra-base hits. Last year, he hit 51 extra-base hits in 126 games with St. Lucie, 23 of them home runs. Vaughn, however, has speed that most power hitters don’t have. He swiped a career-best 21 bases last season. Vaughn’s biggest weakness right now is his hit tool. Everything else is there. If he starts hitting for a higher batting average, everything will come together.
Cesar Puello (RF)- Once dubbed the next Carlos Beltran, Puello may have the best tools in the entire Met system. He has speed, power, and is a solid defender in the outfield. It’s the health that will dictate his future. Last season, Puello hit .260/.328/.423 with 26 extra-base hits in 66 games.

The Sleepers

Danny Muno (2B/SS)- Muno was suspended for PED use last year, after hitting .355 in Brooklyn in 2011. The 2011 eighth-round pick still put up solid numbers, even after the suspension. He hit for a little bit of power, knocking 16 doubles, two triples, and six homers in 81 games with St. Lucie. He put up a .280/.387/.412 batting line. Muno walked an excellent 14.2% of the time while striking out only 15.1%. Oh, and he stole 19 bases.
Tyler Pill (RHP)- Pill is seeing his stock rising fast, and although he isn’t put in the same group as Wheeler, Fulmer, or Syndergaard, he has made a name for himself as a top-30 prospect. He only throws in the high-80s, but uses his excellent command to get hitters out. Last season, he put up an impressive 4.77 K/BB rate with a 2.31 ERA in 113 innings between St. Lucie and Savannah.
Jack Leathersich (LHP)- Leathersich has put up amazing strikeout numbers out of the bullpen since being drafted in 2011 in the fifth round out of UMass-Lowell. Leathersich is on the fast track to the major league bullpen, and will continue to move quickly if his strikeout numbers remain this high. Last season he struck out 14.1 batters per nine. Some call his delivery deceiving, which may explain why his ERA in the Florida State League this year was 4.12. Maybe more advanced hitters are catching on. Perhaps his high walk numbers are hurting him. Or maybe the high ERA was just a result of a small sample size, as so often happens with minor league relief pitchers.
Alonzo Harris (OF)- Harris, once deemed ruined after an aggressive promotion by Omar Minaya went horribly wrong, has re-gained his prospect status with a much-improved approach at the dish over the last few seasons. Promoted too quickly because of his athleticism and raw tools, Harris hit .224/.270/..342 as a 20 year-old, second-year player in Savannah. He was overly-aggressive and struck out over in over 20% of his plate appearances. Since then, he has seen his walk rates rise and strikeout rates fall steadily and now he has a solid approach at the dish. His success in 2011 in Savannah were attributed to him getting used to the league, but the even better walk and strikeout numbers in 2012 with St. Lucie have some people believing that he’s not done yet.

Other Names to Watch

Cory Mazzoni (RHP)- Mazzoni was the Mets’ second-round pick of the 2011 draft out of NC State. After a little over a year in the minors, it appears that that Mazzoni, with a limited arsenal, is headed to the bullpen. He will start for the forseeable future to get more in-game action, but his 6.5 K/9 last year leave much to be desired.
Logan Verrett (RHP)- Verrett only made six starts in St. Lucie after coming back from a shoulder strain, but will move up this year anyway. His 7.15 K/BB ratio last year was stellar. The only concern is the lower strikeout rate in the six St. Lucie starts, which fell to 6.1 K/9 from 9.3 in Savannah.

Tags: Alonzo Harris, Binghamton Mets, Cesar Puello, Cory Mazzoni, Cory Vaughn, Danny Muno, Jack Leathersich, Logan Verrett, Rafael Montero, Tyler Pill, Wilfredo Tovar

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/04/2013-minor-league-preview-binghamton-mets/

Series Preview: Miami Marlins

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Series Preview

April 5, 2013

April 5, 2013

Jose Fernandez will make the jump from A-Ball to the majors when he makes his MLB debut against the Mets on Sunday afternoon.

The Mets begin their second series of the season against the new-look Miami Marlins today, in the first game of what will be a three-game set.

The Marlins, for the second offseason in a row, blew up what they had and started over. Last winter was a little different, as the Marlins were the team adding expensive talent. Now, it’s as if they’re begging teams to take any major league caliber player off their roster. The club that had eight players with salaries of at least $5 million now has just one. Their payroll has been sliced in half, from over a hundred million to just fifty, and that’s including the money they paid to other teams to take on highly-paid players. Take that away and their payroll is under $40 million.

The only player of much worth on the Marlins roster is Giancarlo Stanton, who may end up being traded at the deadline as well this year. The 23 year-old put up unbelievable numbers, hitting 37 home runs and putting up a 5.7 WAR rating in only 123 games. He is the one and only threat left in the lineup.

Overall, if some of the newly-acquired prospects don’t pan out immediately, the Marlins could challenge the Astros for the worst record in baseball.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Jeremy Hefner (93.2 IP, 76 ERA+, 3.44 K/BB) vs. Alex Sanabia (career: 83.1 IP, 113 ERA+, 2.89 K/BB)

Sanabia was pushed out of the rotation last year, pitching in the minors for the entire year. In 18 Triple-A starts, he posted a 3.93 ERA in 91.2 innings. The 24 year-old only pitched 11 innings in the majors in 2011, and made 12 starts in 2010. He had decent success in 2010, putting up a 3.73 ERA (112 ERA+), 5.8 K/9 rate, and a 2.0 BB.9 rate. His mediocre peripherals, however, tell us that he probably isn’t anything special. Just another future journeyman.

Game 2: Jonathon Niese (2012: 190.1 IP, 113 ERA+, 3.16 K/BB) vs. Ricky Nolasco (2012: 191 IP, 88 ERA+, 2.66 K/BB)

Nolasco is currently the highest-paid player on the Miami roster at over $11 million, but nothing he has done over the past few years indicate that he has earned that salary. Nolasco signed a three-year, $26.5 million extension after the 2010 season, but has been dreadful since. In his first start against the Nationals this week, he gave up two runs on three hits while striking out five in six innings of work.

Game 3: Aaron Laffey (100.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 1.30 K/BB) vs. Jose Fernandez (2012 A/High-A: 134 IP, 1.75 ERA, 4.51 K/BB)

The Marlins are taking a huge risk with Fernandez bringing him up this early. The 20 year-old has no experience in either Double-A or Triple-A and while he had an excellent season in the minors last year, is nowhere near ready for the majors. This has David Clyde written all over it. Fernandez, a righty, was listed as the fifth best prospect in baseball by Baseball America and 7th by MLB.com.

Series News & Notes

Marlins outfielder Logan Morrison is recovering from knee surgery and was put on the 60-day DL on March 22. He hit .230/.308/.399 with 11 home runs and 15 doubles in 93 games last season.
Nathan Eovaldi, acquired in the Hanley Ramirez trade last season, is on the DL with shoulder inflammation. He was a top 100 prospect before last season, when he posted a 4.30 ERA with dismal walk and strikeout rates.
Casey Kotchman is on the disabled list as well with a hamstring injury. He batted .229/.280/.333 in 142 games with Cleveland last season.
Just looking at fWAR, the players the Marlins lost this winter were worth 18.5 wins last year while their additions totaled just 3.6 wins. Keep in mind this was a 69-win team with those players on the roster for most of the season.

Tags: Alex Sanabia, Casey Kotchman, Jeremy Hefner, Jonathon Niese, Jose Fernandez, Logan Morrison, Miami Marlins, Nathan Eovaldi, Ricky Nolasco

Permanent link to this article: http://www.upalongfirst.com/2013/04/series-preview-miami-marlins/

Upper Minors: Wheeler Falters In Season Opener, Montero Dominated For Bingo

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April 5, 2013

by Joe DeCaro

April 5, 2013

buff

Las Vegas 51s 10, Sacramento River Cats 5

The 51s had a rougher start to their season behind a shaky first outing for their star pitcher. Zack Wheeler got the opening day nod for Las Vegas and came out of the gate erratic but still exhibiting the mid-90′s fastball and hard curveball. Wheeler went three and one-third innings, throwing 86 pitches, allowing two runs on three hits, walking and striking out three each. Wheeler never seemed to find his comfort zone, and even when he settled in was leaving his fastball up in the zone. Gonzalez Germen came in to relieve Wheeler, and pitched a clean inning and one-third, striking out one. Greg Peavey came on in relief of Germen, and gave up two hits, a walk and struck out one in his inning and two-thirds of work. Justin Hampson came out for one-third and retired his batter with a strikeout. Armando Rodriguez pitched an inning, allowing three runs on four hits, walking three and striking out one. Robert Carson came out to clean-up for Rodriguez and went one clean inning, inducing a double play to end the game.

The 51s bats set the tone for the game, putting across two runs in the first inning on a Wilmer Flores RBI single and an Andrew Brown sacrifice fly. Andrew Brown came back in the third inning with a two-RBI double. However, the biggest output in one inning was in the fifth when Travis d’Arnaud had an RBI double, Wilmer Flores had a sacrifice fly, Zach Lutz had an RBI double and a wild pitch scored Andrew Brown. Brown would hit another sacrifice fly in the seventh, and Omar Quintanilla hit a triple and scored on a throwing error in the eighth.

Key Stats

Wilmer Flores – 3 for 3, two RBI, one walk, sacrifice fly.
Travis d’Arnaud – 2 for 3, four runs, two walks, one RBI, one strikeout
Andrew Brown – 1 for 2, four RBI, one strikeout
Zack Wheeler – 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Robert Carson – 1 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 0 K

bing

Binghamton Mets 2, Akron Aeros 1

The Binghamton Mets begun their season with a pitching exhibition that bodes well for the future of the B.Mets staff. Rafael Montero began the season with the same fury he exhibited in spring training keeping the Aeros hitters off-balance the entire game, going five and two-third innings, giving up two hits with no walks and striking out eight while allowing an earned run. Montero was consistently getting swinging strikes with a fastball that had good rising movement into righties and tailing away from lefties. The only run Montero allowed came at the expense of Adam Kolarek allowing an inherited runner to score. Montero struck out four Aeros in a row at one point. Kolarek himself was no pushover, going one and one-third innings, giving up one hit. Jeffrey Walters finished off the game with a two-inning save, giving up two hits and striking out two including the last batter he faced. The Binghamton bullpen looks like it will have some power arms and the rotation is solid one through five.

Offensively the B.Mets didn’t score much, but put Montero in the lead and kept it that way. SS Wilfredo Tovar had an RBI groundout on a botched double-play ball, scoring 2B Danny Muno. 3B Josh Rodriguez would send an absolute blast to the batters eye in center field in the sixth inning to make the score 2-0. Binghamton would work the count and draw a few walks but despite nine baserunners only managed two runs.

Key Stats

Josh Rodriguez – 1 for 4 – Solo home run, three strikeouts.
Cesar Puello – 1 for 3 – one walk, one stolen base
Alonzo Harris – 1 for 4 – double
Rafael Montero – 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Jefrrey Walters – 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

For more minors coverage check out Metsmerized Online.

Tags: Adam Kolarek, Alonzo Harris, Andrew Brown, Armando Rodriguez, Binghamton Mets, Cesar Puello, Gonzalez Germen, Greg Peavey, Jeffrey Walters, Josh Rodriguez, Justin Hampson, Las Vegas 51s, Minor League Recaps, Omar Quintanilla, Rafael Montero, Robert Carson, Tracis d'Arnaud, Wilfredo Tovar, Wilmer Flores, Zach Lutz, Zack Wheeler