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Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (May 12-18)

Who’s Hot Rainy Lara, RHP (SAV): Lara has put together one of the best weeks we’ve seen from a minor league pitcher so far. In two starts, he has tossed 16 (no that’s not a typo) …

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Is Marlon Byrd Finally Coming Around?

Most of the attention concerning the Met outfield the past few weeks has gone to Jordany Valdespin, both for his character and his play on the field. However, there has been one player who has …

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Mets Minor League Mailbag: When Will Zack Wheeler Debut?

This one comes from Jay via email: When do you think Wheeler will get the major league call up and how large of an impact do you see him having on this season? If Zack …

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Mets Minors: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (April 28- May 5)

Welcome to the second edition of Who’s Hot, Who’s Not. This week was a very intriguing one for followers of the Mets minor league system. We saw the rise of two top pitching prospects, and …

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (May 12-18)Is Marlon Byrd Finally Coming Around?Mets Minor League Mailbag: When Will Zack Wheeler Debut?Mets Minors: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (April 28- May 5)

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (May 12-18)

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Mets Minor Leagues, Weekly Minors Wrap-Up

May 20, 2013

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May 20, 2013

Who’s Hot

  • Rainy Lara, RHP (SAV): Lara has put together one of the best weeks we’ve seen from a minor league pitcher so far. In two starts, he has tossed 16 (no that’s not a typo) shutout innings for Savannah. Even better, he has allowed only four hits during that span while walking just two and striking out 18. One of the unsung heroes of the Brooklyn rotation last year, Lara is putting his name out there as one of the better pitching prospects in the system. He could earn a promotion to St. Lucie soon if he keeps this up.
  • Eric Campbell, OF (LAS): Campbell and the rest of the Las Vegas lineup have been tearing the cover off the ball lately. After getting off to a very cold start, Campbell has been on fire, hitting .533 this week with a 1.230 OPS. As someone who can hit lefties well, Campbell has an outside shot at making the big league club this season if someone gets hurt.
  • Zach Lutz, 3B (LAS): Lutz is making a case for himself to replace the struggling Ike Davis at first base. Lutz, about to turn 27, may finally get the big break he deserves. This week, he hit .476 with a 1.399 OPS, a home run, three doubles, and a triple.

Honorable Mention: Rylan Sandoval, IF (STL): Sandoval, a 30th-round pick in 2007, has been relatively unknown. This is his third year in St. Lucie, but has only had about a full season worth of playing time. He hit .529 this week with two doubles and a 1.203 OPS in 18 plate appearances.

Who’s Not

  • Phillip Evans, SS (SAV): Evans made a name for himself in Brooklyn after being picked in the 15th round in the 2011 draft. Evans had the talent of a early-round pick, but dropped only because of signability concerns. Evans proved last year why there was so much hype around him, but has gone cold recently.
  • Alonzo Harris, OF (BIN): Harris is another guy who had a breakout season last year but has struggled this season. He had a tough week at the plate, batting .118 with only one extra-base hit and a meager .376 OPS.
  • Matthew Reynolds, SS (STL): Reynolds, the Mets’ second-round pick last season, is batting just .200 in the month of May, and has been even worse lately. He hit .125 this week with only a single extra-base hit and five strikeouts in 27 trips to the plate.

Remember, if you have any minor league questions, send them in to the Mets Minor League Mailbag at metsminorleaguemailbag@gmail.com!

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Is Marlon Byrd Finally Coming Around?

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Analysis

May 18, 2013

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May 18, 2013

Most of the attention concerning the Met outfield the past few weeks has gone to Jordany Valdespin, both for his character and his play on the field. However, there has been one player who has very quietly got on a roll, and may be able to plug a hole in the still-fluctuating outfield: Marlon Byrd.

Byrd captured the attention of Mets fans and earned himself a spot on the roster with an incredible spring training, in which he hit .357 with a .965 OPS and a team-leading nine doubles, five more than anyone else on the team. However, once the calender turned and regular season play began, Byrd struggled, and was relegated to a lesser role. He finished the month of April with a .232 batting average and a .759 OPS.

Since May began, Byrd has turned it on at the plate. Despite having a diminished role, Byrd has hit .357 with a  .988 OPS this month along with two home runs in 29 plate appearances.

The reason for Byrd’s decline over the past two seasons (other than just getting a little bit older) may very well be his plate discipline. Byrd, in his best years, was swinging at pitches outside the strike zone somewhere in the range of 29 to 30% of the time. That number has increased to the high-30% range over the past few years. This year, he is swinging at a career high 40.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, but recently, has improved on that dramatically. He stuck out in almost 32% of his plate appearances in April, striking out at least once in almost every game, but has lowered that significantly, to just 24% this month.

Compared to the rest of the outfield recently, Byrd has been by far the best hitter. Here is how he compares to the rest of the outfield this month:

byrd spotlight

Byrd has been overlooked the entire season, when in reality, he one of the best options the Mets have on the 40-man roster. Remember, not too long ago, Byrd was a reliable 10-15 home run hitter with a .280-.290 batting average, which isn’t great, but it is certainly better than the struggling Mike Baxter.

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Mets Minor League Mailbag: When Will Zack Wheeler Debut?

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Mets Minor Leagues

May 8, 2013

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May 8, 2013

Zack Wheeler has 40 strikeouts this season(in 36 IP), tied for second in the Pacific Coast League. However, he has also walked 17, tied for fourth-worst in the PCL.

This one comes from Jay via email:

When do you think Wheeler will get the major league call up and how large of an impact do you see him having on this season?

If Zack Wheeler continues to mix his pitches and keep hitters guessing, which made him so devastating last year, he will be with the Mets sooner rather than later. According to all accounts, he failed to mix up his pitches over his first few starts, becoming predictable and hittable, something he has reportedly improved on in his last few starts. There is no question about talent. This guy’s got it. He has the pure stuff to match up against most major league pitchers right now. It will be control of those deadly pitches that will determine the path of his career.

As for the immediate future, my best guess is Wheeler makes his debut in late June or early July, for a few reasons, the first being his MLB-readiness. After his struggles early on, it’s clear that Wheeler isn’t quite ready for the majors yet. The staff in Triple-A 9s still tinkering and perfecting his mechanics, which may have been a contributing factor to his control problems in early April. Once he gets those last few kinks out, he will be ready, but he isn’t ready yet.

The second and probably most significant reason long-term for the Mets, is the cost of bringing Wheeler up too early. You see, if he’s brought up any time before mid-June, he may be eligible for Super Two status. That means he gets an extra year of arbitration. That doesn’t mean the Mets keep him for another year, it just means that one of his pre-arb years in which the Mets would determine his salary would be eliminated and replaced with an etra year of arbitration. Why is that significant? Well, the cost adds up. If he is a success like the Mets hope he will be, his fourth (and last) arbitration year could be very costly. Overall, Super Two players cost their organizations an average of $12 million more than a non-Super Two player, according to Amazin’ Avenue. In an organization where value is very important, the Mets aren’t going to rush Wheeler, especially in a year where the playoffs are probably out of reach regardless of what the Mets do with him.

To answer the second part of your question, his impact could be significant. Once he comes up, he will certainly jump into the rotation full-time, so he will have a big impact whether he is a success or not. How good will he be? That, however, is the most important question and unfortunately, the only one that can’t be answered.

Have a question about the Mets minor league system? Send them in to metsminorleaguemailbag@gmail.com

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Mets Minors: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (April 28- May 5)

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Analysis

May 6, 2013

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May 6, 2013

Kevin Plawecki is leading the South Atlantic League in hitting.

Welcome to the second edition of Who’s Hot, Who’s Not. This week was a very intriguing one for followers of the Mets minor league system. We saw the rise of two top pitching prospects, and the fall of one who had been absolutely dominant. We also saw Kevin Plawecki continue to show why the Mets made him a first-round pick two years ago. He leads off our Hot List…

Who’s Hot

  •  Kevin Plawecki, C (SAV): Plawecki continues to rake and prove that he is too advanced for the South Atlantic League. In a stadium  in which hits are hard to come by, Plawecki has hit the cover off the ball, and put up very good power numbers. This week, he hit .438 with a .500 On-Base Percentage and slugged .750. He is currently leading the league in average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging, doubles, and total bases.
  • Noah Syndergaard, RHP (STL): After giving up seven runs against Fort Myers on April 18, Syndergaard has been lights out, tossing three straight terrific outings. In his two starts this week, he allowed just two runs (one earned) on 13 hits in 13 innings. Even more impressive, he struck out 12 and walked just three.
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP (LAV): Wheeler, after some awful early-season struggles, has bounced back well. This week, he allowed one run on eight hits over 12.2 innings, while walking just two batters. He has also been throwing more strikes, which is the key to him reaching the majors. Wheeler has started using his breaking ball again, which may be the reason he has been able to put it back together on the mound.

Honorable Mention: Travis Taijeron, OF (STL): Taijeron was on fire this week, hitting six doubles an batting .500 and getting on base in well over 50% of his plate appearances. Taijeron struggled in the second half, so it’s great to see him be able to put it back together again.

Who’s Not

  • Rafael Montero, RHP (BIN): Montero was on fire last week, making last week’s Hot List. This week, however, was a completely different story for Montero. In one start, he tossed 6.2 innings but allowed ten runs (seven of them earned) on ten hits against Erie. That came after five straight starts of alloweing two runs or less to start the season.
  • Jacob deGrom, RHP (BIN): DeGrom had one so-so start and one bad start this week for Binghamton. In his first against Akron, he allowed five runs on seven hits (including two home runs) against Akron. In the second, he gave up three in six innings. However, for the entire week, he was only able to strike out three batters in 11.1 innings. It’s only two starts, but deGrom averaged almost eight strikeouts per nine innings last season.
  • Brian Bixler, SS (LAV): Bixler, who signed as a minor league free agent this offseason, had a very tough week at the plate, batting .150/.190/.150 with no extra-base hits and five strikeouts in 20 at-bats.

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Series Preview: Atlanta Braves

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Analysis, Series Preview

May 3, 2013

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May 3, 2013

The Braves acquired both Upton brothers this offseason.

The Braves made headlines this offseason with their acquisition of B.J. Upton in November, signing him to a five year deal worth about $75 million. However, just when the offseason was winding down and it appeared the Braves were done, they surprised everyone and acquired B.J.’s brother Justin from the Diamondbacks. The tandem added a boost to the Atlanta offense that they so badly needed, and had some experts picking them to challenge the Nationals for the NL crown.

Thus far, it appears the Braves made the right move, at least with Justin Upton. If the season ended today, he would be the unanimous MVP. Upton is leading the majors with 12 home runs, three more than anyone else. That, to go along with a not-too-shabby .287/.387/.693 has carried the otherwise mediocre Braves offense.

In reality, it has been the pitching that has carried the Atlanta Braves this season. Despite trading Tommy Hanson this winter, the Braves lead baseball in team ERA with an outstanding 3.10 mark coming into today’s action. More specifically, it has been their bullpen, which has been even stronger than last year’s. Craig Kimbrel has continued his dominance, striking out 15 batters in 10.2 innings. Kimbrel and Jordan Walden, who the Braves received in the Tommy Hanson trade, are among five relievers with at least ten innings pitched and an ERA under two. Compare that to the Mets, who have two such pitchers.

This Braves team is good (yes, even better than the Marlins if you can believe it) and will put up a very tough fight, especially in close games. The key for the Mets will be scoring runs off their starting pitching, because  if they trail in the late innings, the odds are stacked against them.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Shaun Marcum (5.2 IP, 50 ERA+, 1.33 K/BB) vs. Mike Minor (31.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 5.40 K/BB)

Minor, 25, was selected seventh overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves and quickly rose to stardom in their minor league system. Once he reached the big leagues, he never pitched like the ace some thought he could become. Minor came into the season with a career ERA of 4.37 in 302.2 career innings. This year, however, has been much better for him, at least so far. Over five starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and career-best 1.4 BB/9 rate. He was roughed up for six runs in 6.2 innings against the juggernaut Detroit offense, but had a 1.80 ERA in four starts coming into that outing.

Game 2: Jonathon Niese (32.2 IP, 112 ERA+, 1.31 K/BB) vs. Julio Teheran (28.1 IP, 77 ERA+, 2.50 K/BB)

Teheran has been a highly-regarded prospect since his breakout year in the minors in 2009. He worked his way through the minors fairly quickly, until stalling at Triple-A last season. Coming off a dominant season in Triple-A in 2011, Teheran failed to earn a job out of spring training, and was sent back. Once he was back in the minors, Teheran wasn’t the same pitcher. His 3.0 walks per nine wasn’t terrible, but his 6.7 strikeouts was a career-low. What was most concerning was the 18 home runs he gave up, doubling his previous career-worst of nine. Teheran has a 5.08 ERA in five starts, striking out 20 and walking eight in 28.1 innings.

Game 3: Matt Harvey (40.1 IP, 237 ERA+, 3.83 K/BB) vs. Tim Hudson (35 IP, 101 ERA+, 2.18 K/BB)

Even at age 37, Hudson continues to be the rock of the Atlanta rotation. In 11 of his past 12 seasons, Hudson has posted an ERA below four. This year, he has a 3.86 ERA in 35 innings over six starts. In his last outing, Hudson shut down the Nationals, holding them to one run on three hits in seven innings on only 96 pitches.

Series News & Notes

  • The Mets sent down a struggling Collin Cowgill today in favor of the red-hot Andrew Brown, who has been tearing it up with the Las Vegas 51s. Brown was hitting .367 with a .440 On-Base Percentage and two home runs in 25 games.
  • Jordany Valdespin slugged a three-run pinch-hit home run on Wednesday to give the Mets a 5-4 lead…It was the Mets first pinch-hit home run of the year and the sixth pinch-hit of Valdespin’s brief career…He is tied for second all-time on the club’s pinch-hit home run list.
  • New York has scored three or fewer runs in eight of itslast 12 games and is hitting .202 (89-441) over that span…Overall, the Mets are seventh in the majors scoring 4.85 runs per game.
  • Craig Kimbrel recorded his 98th career save Monday in Atlanta’s 3-2 win over Washington…Kimbrel’s career save percentage of 89.1 (98/110) ranks fi fth all-time among pitchers with at least 100 save opportunities (see chart at right)…According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the quickest anyone has ever reached 100 career saves was Eric Gagne, who did in his 104th opportunity, followed by John Smoltz (107th) and Joakim Soria (112th)…Kimbrel could tie Soria for third all time if he can convert each of his next two opportunities.
  • The Atlanta bullpen’s homerless streak was snapped at 21 games last Friday (April 26) at Detroit when reliever Anthony Varvaro surrendered a three-run shot in the fourth inning…Since the franchise moved to Atlanta (1966), that was the furthest into a season (21 games) that a Braves team has gone without the bullpen allowing a home run.

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Series Preview: Miami Marlins

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Analysis, Series Preview

April 29, 2013

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April 29, 2013

Somehow, the Miami Marlins are playing worse than they were expected to. As it stands right now, the Martlins are 6-19. That’s a .240 winning percentage, which is even worse than the Astros, who are at .280 this season. On offense, the Marlins are dead last in baseball in runs scored, OPS, and home runs, among other categories. They are scoring only about 2.7 runs per game, and their pitching staff hasn’t been much better. After gutting their rotation of all but some youngsters and Ricky Nolasco in the massive trade with the Blue Jays, their starters now have a 4.26 ERA, 20th in baseball. Their bullpen, although not as bad as the Mets’, is 27th in the majors in ERA at 4.57. Steve Cishek and Chad Qualls aren’t exactly the kind of pitchers who make you fear trailing late  in a game.

The only decent player on Miami’s roster is Giancarlo Stanton, of course, but even he has been on-and-off this season. He didn’t hit his first home run until his 18th game of the season two nights ago against the Cubs. He went on to hit two on Sunday, but his power numbers still have left much to be desired. His walk numbers and BABIP are at normal levels for Stanton, so perhaps it’s the shoulder contusion that Stanton suffered a few weeks ago which has been bringing down his production.

Overall, the Marlins are a team the Mets should handily beat. Although some cynics predicted the Mets to compete with the Marlins for last place, that seems unlikely with the way the Marlins have started the season. Hopefully the Mets will be able to use this series to get back on track.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey, RHP (35 IP, 233 ERA+, 3.90 K/BB) vs. Jose Fernandez, RHP (20 IP, 84 ERA+, 2.38 K/BB)

The Mets saw Fernandez make his big league debut against them on April 7, when he allowed one run on three hits in five innings while striking out eight. He has had one good start and two iffy ones since then. In his last start, which came against Minnesota, he gave up four runs on six hits in five innings. In his start before that, he gave up five earned in four innings against the Reds. One thing to take note of in game one of this series will be Fernandez’s pitch count. The Marlins have coddled him thus far, keeping him around 8- pitches in each of his starts.

Game 2: Jeremy Hefner, RHP (21 IP, 70 ERA+, 1.09 K/BB) vs. Kevin Slowey, RHP (29.2 IP, 155 ERA+, 3.50 K/BB)

After spending an injury-riddled 2012 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, the once top prospect Slowey got another shot with the Marlins. Slowey has been their best pitcher so far, putting up a team-best 2.43 ERA. It’s hard to say long-term whether Slowey can hold up, but he has been very good so far and keeping his walk numbers down, which he has always been known for. In his last start against the Cubs, Slowey gave up three runs in six innings while striking out six and not walking a batter.

Game 3: Dillon Gee, RHP (25.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB) vs. Wade LeBlanc, LHP (24.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB)

LeBlanc was traded to Miami for John Baker in November 2011 after four years with the Padres. LeBlanc spent last season as a starter and reliever for the Marlins, posting a 3.67 ERA in 25 games, nine of them starts. He hasn’t been as terrible as his numbers might say. His ERA is inflated from his April 15 start in which he let up seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Nationals. He has otherwise been decent. In his last start against Chicago, he gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings.

Series News & Notes

  • Adeiny Hechavarria, who you might remember from the last series these two teams played, suffered a bruised elbow on April 16 and was placed on the disabled list the next day. Hechavattia went 4-for-10 in the last series against the Mets in early April.
  • New York embarks on its second road trip of the year with three games in Miami and then three contests in Atlanta…The Mets will play 13 of their next 19 away from Citi Field…New York went 3-5 on its first road trip of the season…The Mets were 38-43 on the road in 2012.
  • David Wright is tied for second in the majors with 19 walks and Lucas Duda is tied for fourth in the majors with 18…The Mets have drawn 87 walks, tied for the fifth-most in the majors.
  • The Mets have hit at least one home run in 17 of their 23 games and 25 on the year, tied for the sixth-most in the National League…The Mets have hit three grand slams to lead the majors.
  • John Buck’s eight home runs tie him for the third-most by a Met during the month of April with Dave Kingman (1982), Jeff Kent (1994), Todd Hundley (1996) and Mike Piazza(2001)…Carlos Delgado (2006) and Dave Kingman (1976) hold the club record with nine home runs in the month of April.

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